منابع مشابه
Intersection Bounds, Robust Bayes, and Updating Ambiguous Beliefs
This paper develops multiple-prior Bayesian inference for a set-identi ed parameter whose identi ed set is constructed by an intersection of two identi ed sets. We formulate an econometricians practice of "adding an assumption" as "updating ambiguous beliefs." Among several ways to update ambiguous beliefs proposed in the literature, we consider the DempsterShafer updating rule (Dempster (1968...
متن کاملUpdating Ambiguous Beliefs in a Social Learning Experiment
We present a novel experimental design to study social learning in the laboratory. Subjects have to predict the value of a good in a sequential order. We elicit each subject’s belief twice: ...rst (“prior belief”), after he observes his predecessors’ action; second (“posterior belief”), after he observes a private signal on the value of the good. We are therefore able to disentangle social lear...
متن کاملCesaltina Pacheco Pires a Rule for Updating Ambiguous Beliefs
When preferences are such that there is no unique additive prior, the issue of which updating rule to use is of extreme importance. This paper presents an axiomatization of the rule which requires updating of all the priors by Bayes rule. The decision maker has conditional preferences over acts. It is assumed that preferences over acts conditional on eventE happening, do not depend on lotteries...
متن کاملThe Ex-Ante Non-Optimality of the Dempster-Schafer Updating Rule for Ambiguous Beliefs (A Commentary on "Updating Ambiguous Beliefs' by Gilboa and Schmeidler)
The most widely used updating rule for non-additive probabilities is the Dempster-Schafer rule. Schmeidler and Gilboa have developed a model of decision making under uncertainty based on non-additive probabilities, and in their paper "Updating Ambiguous Beliefs" they justify the Dempster-Schafer rule based on a maximum likelihood procedure. This note shows in the context of Schmeidler-Gilboa pr...
متن کاملHierarchies of ambiguous beliefs
We present a theory of interactive beliefs analogous to Mertens and Zamir [31] and Brandenburger and Dekel [10] that allows for hierarchies of ambiguity. Each agent is allowed a compact set of beliefs at each level, rather than just a single belief as in the standard model. We propose appropriate definitions of coherency and common knowledge for our types. Common knowledge of coherency closes t...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Economic Theory
سال: 1993
ISSN: 0022-0531
DOI: 10.1006/jeth.1993.1003